Wireless Traffic: The Failure of CBR Modeling Stefan Karpinski, Elizabeth M. Belding, Kevin C. Almeroth Department of Computer Science University of California Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5110 Performance predictions from simulations in wireless networking rarely seem to match the behavior observed once the same technologies are deployed. We believe that one of the major factors hampering researchers ability to make more reliable forecasts is the inability to generate realistic experimental workloads. To redress this problem, we take a fundamentally new approach to quantifying the realism of wireless traffic models. In this approach, the realism of a model is defined directly in terms of its ability to accurately reproduce the performance characteristics of actual network usage. This direct approach cuts through the Gordian knot of deciding which statistical features of traffic traces are significant. The first major contribution of this work is this new definition of workload realism, together with the analytical and statistical methodology to rigorously assess whether synthetic traffic models meet the definition. The second contribution is the conclusion that commonly used models of wireless traffic distort important metrics for performance evaluation at every layer of the wireless protocol stack. We show by example that this distortion can completely invert the relative performance of protocols. The last and most important contribution is the complete collection of ideas, techniques and analytical tools that will allow the development of more realistic synthetic traffic models in the future.